Which method uses a formal, iterative consensus from experts?

Which method uses a formal, iterative consensus from experts?

• A. Engineering Approach
• B. Delphi Approach
• C. Parametric
• D. Analogy

Answer: (B)

The Delphi approach uses formal, iterative consensus from experts. It gathers judgments from a panel of subject-matter experts through multiple rounds of questionnaires. After each round, responses are summarized and shared with the group, and participants can revise their answers in light of others’ feedback. This process continues until the responses converge or a predefined stopping rule is met. Anonymity among participants helps prevent domination by any one expert and reduces bias, leading to a more reliable collective judgment. This method is particularly useful for estimating costs, risks, or requirements when data is uncertain or incomplete, because it builds a reasoned consensus from knowledgeable contributors rather than relying solely on historical data or single-judge analyses. The others don’t fit as well because the Engineering Approach relies on structured engineering analysis and design data, the Parametric method uses statistical relationships derived from historical data, and Analogy estimates based on similarities to prior programs. None of these involve the formal, iterative, anonymous expert consensus process that defines the Delphi approach.

The Delphi approach uses formal, iterative consensus from experts. It gathers judgments from a panel of subject-matter experts through multiple rounds of questionnaires. After each round, responses are summarized and shared with the group, and participants can revise their answers in light of others’ feedback. This process continues until the responses converge or a predefined stopping rule is met. Anonymity among participants helps prevent domination by any one expert and reduces bias, leading to a more reliable collective judgment. This method is particularly useful for estimating costs, risks, or requirements when data is uncertain or incomplete, because it builds a reasoned consensus from knowledgeable contributors rather than relying solely on historical data or single-judge analyses.

The others don’t fit as well because the Engineering Approach relies on structured engineering analysis and design data, the Parametric method uses statistical relationships derived from historical data, and Analogy estimates based on similarities to prior programs. None of these involve the formal, iterative, anonymous expert consensus process that defines the Delphi approach.